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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Private actor’s drone incursions into North Korea risk derailing Lee’s tension-easing efforts
Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
President Lee Jae Myung has condemned the act of a civilian sending drones into North Korean airspace as an unacceptable security risk that could trigger military clashes between the two Koreas. He emphasized that such drone incursions violate the Armistice Agreement and international law, calling for a thorough investigation and punishment of those involved. Lee warned that individuals engaging in actions resembling acts of war would face consequences, reflecting concerns that the incident could destabilize the fragile armistice.
Investigations suggest the drone flights may not have been the work of a lone civilian. The man involved, Oh, initially claimed he was inspecting pollution from North Korean uranium factories, but evidence points to possible involvement from conservative political groups and the military’s Defense Intelligence Command. Oh’s connections to conservative media and his previous work in the presidential office during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration have fueled speculation of broader ties.
President Lee also criticized the Ministry of National Defense for failing to adequately detect the drone incursions despite radar indications. He called the surveillance failure unacceptable and urged improvements to military facilities and equipment to better prevent future threats. Lee’s strong response reflects his priority of safeguarding inter-Korean relations and preventing incidents that could undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Lee’s denunciation of the drone incident is closely linked to his administration’s push to ease tensions with North Korea. Despite conciliatory gestures, North Korea has yet to respond, and Lee stressed the importance of seeking openings to improve engagement. The drone incursions risk derailing these efforts by provoking security concerns and hardening military stances on both sides.
North Korea's denuclearization 'ideal' but unrealistic for now, Lee says in presser
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
President Lee Jae Myung stated during a press conference on January 21, 2026, that while North Korea's denuclearization remains an ideal goal, it is currently unrealistic. He emphasized the urgency of negotiating a nuclear freeze to halt North Korea's rapidly expanding weapons program, which is capable of producing 10 to 20 new nuclear weapons annually. Lee proposed a phased approach starting with a freeze, followed by disarmament, ultimately leading to full denuclearization.
Lee highlighted the risks posed by North Korea's nuclear capabilities, including the potential for regime security and global missile threats. He warned that surplus nuclear material could be exported, endangering global security. Lee has conveyed this message to U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, advocating a pragmatic negotiation approach that benefits all parties, including North Korea.
In addition to nuclear issues, Lee addressed recent allegations of drone incursions into North Korea, urging a thorough investigation while emphasizing his government's commitment to dialogue and peaceful coexistence on the peninsula. He committed to facilitating North-U.S. talks and restoring the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement to prevent conflict.
Lee also reflected on recent diplomatic engagements with China and Japan, noting progress in Sino-Korean relations and the potential for military and cultural cooperation with China. Regarding Japan, he called for mutual consideration to resolve historical disputes, seeking a path that benefits all parties amid complex international dynamics.
Lee centers foreign policy on strategic autonomy in shaky world
Korea Herald | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
President Lee Jae Myung outlined a foreign policy focused on "strategic autonomy" and "pragmatic diplomacy centered on the national interest" amid a volatile global environment. He stressed the importance of self-reliant national defense as essential to navigating growing economic slowdowns that could intensify interstate rivalries and military conflicts. South Korea, already the world's fifth-largest military power, must continue to strengthen its defense industry to avoid risks of entrapment or abandonment in international alliances.
Regarding relations with China, Lee described his recent state visit as a turning point, emphasizing room for cooperation beyond trade, including diplomatic and security coordination and cultural exchanges. On North Korea, Lee advocated a pragmatic, phased approach to denuclearization focused on peaceful coexistence and deterrence. He acknowledged the current difficulties in achieving unification and called for prioritizing avoidance of war, urging dialogue and mutual respect while recognizing the continued reality of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
Domestically, Lee dismissed calls for a direct meeting with opposition leader Rep. Song Eon-seog, urging initial dialogue to occur party-to-party before any presidential involvement. This stance comes amid controversy over dual special prosecutor investigations into Democratic Party lawmakers and the opposition’s ongoing hunger strike demanding these probes. Lee also addressed the contentious nomination of Lee Hye-hoon to head the Ministry of Planning and Budget, noting he has not made a final decision and advocated proceeding with a confirmation hearing despite opposition boycott, emphasizing the nominee deserves a chance to respond to allegations.
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