South Korea

38 North | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea

The latest US National Security Strategy (NSS) marks a significant shift in Washington’s approach to the Korean Peninsula by excluding North Korean denuclearization as a central concern and redirecting deterrence responsibilities primarily onto allies, especially South Korea. This shift reflects a reprioritization in US strategy that reduces direct engagement and increases South Korea’s burden in managing North Korea, resulting in a more volatile and unpredictable security environment.

North Korea views this strategic retrenchment as an opportunity to strengthen its position by adopting a more confrontational stance toward South Korea, potentially codifying a hostile inter-Korean doctrine at its upcoming Ninth Party Congress. Its military provocations serve a dual purpose: challenging South Korea’s control over contested maritime and air defense zones in a calculated manner to avoid large-scale escalation, and provoking political divisions within South Korea related to responses and the credibility of US extended deterrence.

South Korea is responding to these provocations by significantly increasing its defense budget and investing in advanced military capabilities, signaling a shift toward greater self-reliance and reduced dependence on the US nuclear umbrella. Discussions on indigenous nuclear options and strategic assets have entered mainstream political debate, reflecting growing doubts about the reliability of US deterrence.

The absence of North Korea from the US NSS increases the risk of an accelerated arms race on the Peninsula, compounded by US global strategic actions that raise perceptions of unpredictability and willingness to use force. This dynamic incentivizes both Pyongyang and Seoul to engage in competitive military buildup and riskier postures, especially around sensitive zones like the Northern Limit Line and Korea Air Defense Identification Zone, with a heightened chance of destabilizing escalation.

Underlying this situation are flawed assumptions within US policy that ambiguity and burden-shifting will maintain stability. Without clear communication, senior-level coordination, and explicit crisis management policies—including well-defined red lines—burden-shifting encourages risk-taking by all parties. The evolving arms competition and alliance asymmetries on the Peninsula increase the likelihood of costly miscalculations and military adventurism unless strategic signaling and allied coordination improve significantly.

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Unification Minister Chung Dong-young visited peace trail routes and designated education sites near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between the two Koreas on January 21, 2026. The visit was escorted by the U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC), which cited the tour as part of a designated DMZ education and orientation program. Fifteen sites have been designated for such programs to ensure safety and stability in the area.

During the visit, Minister Chung walked the established ROK Peace Trail routes located south of the DMZ's southern boundary, which extend from Ganghwa to Goseong near the inter-Korean border. The UNC, responsible for enforcing the armistice from the 1950-53 Korean War and overseeing DMZ activities, emphasized the importance of maintaining control and stability in the buffer zone between South and North Korea.

The article also references ongoing contention regarding control over DMZ access between South Korea and the U.S., with the UNC opposing South Korea's bill to take control of DMZ access, stressing the need to avoid politicizing the area.

Bae, Kim & Lee LLC | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedLegal Exposure

KCAB International implemented the fully revised International Arbitration Rules ("2026 Rules") effective January 1, 2026, marking a comprehensive overhaul aimed at aligning its procedures with leading global institutions. Key changes include the establishment of the International Arbitration Court, which enhances independence and credibility by overseeing arbitrator appointments, managing multi-party and multi-contract cases, making prima facie jurisdiction determinations, and scrutinizing awards to ensure procedural integrity and reduce risks of annulment.

The 2026 Rules introduce and distinguish between Expedited and Fast-Track Procedures to enhance efficiency based on dispute amounts. The Expedited Procedure applies to disputes between KRW 500 million and KRW 4 billion with a six-month award timeline, while the Fast-Track Procedure covers disputes up to KRW 500 million with a three-month timeline. Both emphasize sole arbitrator panels and documents-only processes to speed resolution and reduce costs. An Early Determination mechanism allows for dismissal of manifestly unsustainable claims, and the Emergency Arbitrator regime has been refined to expedite urgent interim relief.

The amendments also provide a strengthened framework for complex multi-party and multi-contract disputes, including provisions for joinder, consolidation, single arbitration under multiple contracts, and concurrent proceedings to prevent duplicative arbitration and inconsistent awards. The International Arbitration Court is empowered to decide on consolidation matters, improving upon the previous rules.

In terms of time and cost efficiency, the 2026 Rules set clear deadlines for draft and final awards and centralize cost allocation authority within the Secretariat, Secretary-General, and Court to promote transparency. The Rules impose stricter duties on arbitrators to avoid conflicts of interest and require early disclosure of third-party funding arrangements to uphold transparency and integrity.

Overall, the 2026 Rules aim to enhance procedural efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and the management of complex disputes, while reinforcing the stability and enforceability of KCAB arbitral awards. These changes position KCAB as a more systematic, transparent, and reliable forum for international arbitration cases filed or agreed upon from January 1, 2026, onward.